A REVIEW OF APPLICATION ISSUES OF THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT-MAIN WATER FORECASTING SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the processes that occurred during an application of the Metropolitan Water District (MWD)-MAIN water use forecasting system for the City of Salinas, California. The review includes an analysis of sources of available data, methods for estimating input data, calibration, and verification of the MWD-MAIN System, and an evaluation of the reliability of system output. We found that inexperienced users can have difficulty understanding the level of skill, knowledge, and amount of data that are required to produce reliable forecasts. Some of the issues associated with application of the MWD-MAIN System include the following:

• ? All input data needed for accurate forecasts simply are not available for many cities and towns.
• ? The data requirements are more extensive than many users anticipate.
• ? Substantial requirements for manipulation of input data produces opportunity for error that creates major time demands in troubleshooting.
• ? Calibration and verification for specific uses can be substantially more difficult than is readily apparent from the guidance manual.
• ? Independent validity checks need to be done to validate system output.
• ? If specified calibrating procedures do not produce reasonable results, reestimating slope coefficients is an option, but this requires resources and expertise that can easily exceed the limits of most users.

These are problems typical of most complex models. Reviews such as this can help users to appreciate the level of data required, and to use the MWD-MAIN System in a more effective and efficient manner.     

Experimental studies on water strider mating dynamics: spatial variation in density and sex ratio

Summary We used field surveys, field experiments and experiments in artificial pools to study the effects of variation in sex ratio and density on mating dynamics of a stream water strider, Aquarius remigis. Our field survey documented the existence of hot spots, sites of higher than average total gerrid density, a male-biased sex ratio, and higher than average female mating activity. Female gerrids frequently changed sites, usually moving upstream, perhaps to spread their eggs among many sites. Male gerrids showed two movement strategies: some males frequently changed sites, while other males were stationary at hot spots. Surprisingly, smaller males tended to be stationary at hot spots. A field manipulation of the availability of refuges for females to avoid harassment by males supported the notion that males prefer hot spots because they are sites where a scarcity of refuge for females makes it relatively easy for males to intercept females. Experiments in plastic pools compared sites with 20 males: 5 females (simulating hot spots) to pools with 5 males: 5 females. The rate of male harassment of females was higher in 20:5 pools as compared to 5:5 pools. In response to increased male harassment, females reduced their activity on the water and increased their time spent out of the water and thus unable to forage. Males showed a large male mating advantage (LMMA) in 5:5 pools, but, surprisingly, not in 20: 5 pools. This pattern can explain the field observation that small males prefer hot spots. A behavioral mechanism that can explain the LMMA is as follows. Mating occurs when males overcome female resistance. Larger males have a mating advantage over smaller males if females resist heavily. Increased harassment (e.g., in 20:5 pools as compared to 5:5 pools) might result in reduced female resistance to males and thus a reduced LMMA. Females also showed some non-random mating by size that might reflect an interplay between male preference for large females and the avoidance of males by large females. Correspondence to: A. Sih     

Associating Ecosystem Service Losses with Indicators of Toxicity in Habitat Equivalency Analysis

Habitat equivalency analysis (HEA) was developed as a tool to scale mitigation or restoration when habitat is contaminated by hazardous substances or has been otherwise harmed by anthropogenic activities. Applying HEA involves balancing reductions in habitat quality against gains from restoration actions, and quantifying changes in habitat quality in terms of ecological services. We propose a framework for developing ecological service definitions and measures that incorporate knowledge about the impacts of chemical contaminants on biota. We describe a general model for integrating multiple lines of evidence about the toxicity of hazardous substances to allow mapping of toxicological inputs to ecological service losses. We provide an example of how this framework might be used in a HEA that quantifies ecological services provided by estuarine sediments contaminated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.     

The post-Bhopal and post-9/11 transformations in chemical emergency prevention and response policy in the United States

The United States' approach to incident prevention and response to hazardous chemical facilities has undergone two major transformations in the last 20 years. The first was triggered by the Bhopal tragedy in 1984, which led to major changes within the US chemical industry and a series of Federal laws and regulations intended to prevent major chemical accidents. A more recent transformation is currently underway in the wake of the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington. It involves the advent of various security-related requirements affecting many of the same facilities covered under the existing accident prevention rules. This paper provides an overview of these transformations and their impacts.     

RAINGAGE NETWORK DESIGN USING NEXRAD PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: A general framework is proposed for using precipitation estimates from NEXRAD weather radars in raingage network design. NEXRAD precipitation products are used to represent space time rainfall fields, which can be sampled by hypothetical raingage networks. A stochastic model is used to simulate gage observations based on the areal average precipitation for radar grid cells. The stochastic model accounts for subgrid variability of precipitation within the cell and gage measurement errors. The approach is ideally suited to raingage network design in regions with strong climatic variations in rainfall where conventional methods are sometimes lacking. A case study example involving the estimation of areal average precipitation for catchments in the Catskill Mountains illustrates the approach. The case study shows how the simulation approach can be used to quantify the effects of gage density, basin size, spatial variation of precipitation, and gage measurement error, on network estimates of areal average precipitation. Although the quality of NEXRAD precipitation products imposes limitations on their use in network design, weather radars can provide valuable information for empirical assessment of rain‐gage network estimation errors. Still, the biggest challenge in quantifying estimation errors is understanding subgrid spatial variability. The results from the case study show that the spatial correlation of precipitation at subgrid scales (4 km and less) is difficult to quantify, especially for short sampling durations. Network estimation errors for hourly precipitation are extremely sensitive to the uncertainty in subgrid spatial variability, although for storm total accumulation, they are much less sensitive.     

ASSESSMENT USING GIS AND SEDIMENT ROUTING OF THE PROPOSED REMOVAL OF BALLVILLE DAM,SANDUSKY RIVER,OHIO1

ABSTRACT: The proposed removal of Ballville Dam was assessed by (1) using a new Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based method for calculating reservoir sediment storage, (2) evaluating sediment properties and contamination from core data, and (3) assessing downstream impacts from sediment routing calculations. A 1903 (pre‐dam) map was manipulated using GIS to recreate the reservoir bathymetry at time of dam construction and used in combination with a detailed 1993 bathymetric survey to calculate sediment volumes and thickness. Reservoir sediment properties and geochemistry were determined from 14 sediment vibracores. Annual sedimentation rates varied from 1.7 to 4.3 g/cm²/yr based on Cesium‐137 (¹³⁷Cs) and Lead‐210 (²¹⁰Pb) geochronology and dated flood layers. The pore fluid geochemistry (Ba, Co, Cu, Mn) of four cores showed surficial enrichments in Cu, while Co and Mn show secondary peaks within the sediments. GIS calculations showed that a designed channel through the former reservoir able to accommodate the 10 percent Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) would require removing approximately 0.35 million m³ of sediment (27 percent of the reservoir fill), either by dredging at a cost of up to $6.3 million or by releasing fine grained sediment downstream. A sediment routing model was applied for the critical 6 km downstream using four cross sections. The sediment routing model predicts that, for flows exceeding minimum Mean Daily Flow (1924 to 1998 data), greater than 90 percent of this sediment would be transported through downstream reaches into Lake Erie (Sandusky Bay).     

CULTURAL EVOLUTION AND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY1

ABSTRACT: This article reports the findings of a case study of a major California water management district's effort to change its management approach. The following key findings and factors have influenced the Salinas basin management plan (BMP) and its progress: (1) the Salinas Valley is an economy dominated by highly sophisticated irrigated agriculture dependent on ground water; (2) a persistent pattern of agricultural overdraft of ground water has hurt growers primarily in the north end of the valley via induced saline intrusion of irrigation wells; (3) a complex set of water institutions, property and water rights, and land lease practices offer little incentive for good stewardship of land and water; and (4) the BMP approach initially may have intensified tension among growers and between growers and other water user groups. Water rules and practices in the Salinas Valley and Monterey County have evolved through a long historical process of adaptations. Therefore, any significant changes in local water use practices need to be understood in terms of cultural change, that is, changes in deeply held values, beliefs, and assumptions. We believe the BMP and the MCWRA are succeeding when evaluated from this evolutionary perspective. The fact that both still exist relatively intact testifies that they are working, albeit slowly.     

A practical approach to steam‐enhanced dual‐phase extraction: A case study

This article presents the results of a pilot test that was conducted to determine the effectiveness of using steam‐enhanced dual‐phase extraction (DPE) at a former industrial site in New York. The pilot test proved that steam‐enhanced DPE was very effective at removing significant contaminant mass from the subsurface in a relatively short time period. Concentrations of volatile organic compounds and semivolatile organic compounds in the vapor stream and groundwater were successfully reduced, in some cases by orders of magnitude. Based on the results of the steam‐enhanced DPE pilot test, the final remedy for the site includes implementing this technology at selected areas as an alternative to DPE alone or other remedial alternatives, such as excavation or groundwater pump and treat. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.